Donald Trump’s renewed second term as President of the United States has significantly impacted the world, including Cambodia. Over the next four years, Cambodia is expected to be vulnerable to the adverse effects of Trump’s foreign policy as he focuses on his vision to ‘Make America Great Again’.

A 2023 Gallup survey revealed that Cambodian public opinion was generally more favorable toward the United States than China. Similarly, a survey conducted by the Foreign Policy Community of Indonesia (FPCI) in collaboration with the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) found that Cambodians viewed the U.S. as the primary political and security influencer in the region, surpassing China.

However, if Trump’s foreign policy weakens U.S. soft power by reducing foreign assistance, public sentiment in Cambodia may shift in China’s favor.

In January 2025, Trump made a domestically driven decision to abruptly suspend all programs by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) for a 90-day review period. This sudden move affected USAID operations worldwide, including in Cambodia, creating uncertainty and imposing serious consequences, particularly in key areas requiring development assistance for livelihood improvement and democratic governance.

U.S. foreign assistance, commonly known as foreign aid, is the largest component of the international affairs budget, used by the U.S. administration to advance its foreign policy objectives with allies and partners. In recent years, this policy has prioritized strategic competition with China and Russia while addressing global humanitarian crises.

In Cambodia, U.S. development assistance has played a crucial role in helping the country recover from prolonged conflict and isolation. It has supported Cambodia’s regional reintegration by accelerating national development, particularly in critical sectors such as healthcare—addressing HIV/AIDS, infectious diseases, and maternal, child, and reproductive health—enhancing education quality and accessibility, and promoting improved political and economic governance.

The abrupt suspension of USAID funding has had global repercussions, and Cambodia is no exception. Over the next four years, key USAID programs designed to improve livelihoods in Cambodia will be at risk, threatening the progress made in strengthening Cambodia-U.S. relations amidst complex geopolitical dynamics.

USAID has maintained a long-standing presence in Cambodia, shaping a comprehensive vision for how U.S. assistance can support Cambodia’s national development efforts while aligning with broader U.S. foreign policy objectives. Since 1992, USAID has provided approximately $2 billion in aid to Cambodia. In October 2024, it announced an additional $50 million in funding to address key development priorities, including healthcare, education, economic growth, demining, and civil society support.

The U.S. has been a strong supporter of Cambodia in combating terrorism, building democratic institutions, promoting human rights, and fostering inclusive economic development. It has actively worked to protect civil liberties, advance women’s entrepreneurship, safeguard workers' rights, and fight human trafficking. Through these initiatives, the U.S. has aimed to contribute to Cambodia’s long-term stability and economic progress.

However, with the new U.S. administration prioritizing domestic agendas over value-based international advocacy, programs related to environmental protection, climate change, gender empowerment, and civil society may be reduced or discontinued altogether. This shift will impact Cambodia’s civil society and environmental institutions, posing long-term challenges to the country’s inclusive and progressive national development.

If USAID programs are permanently halted, it could alter the traditional role of U.S. foreign assistance in supporting Cambodia’s development.

By undertaking a sweeping review to freeze most foreign aid for 90 days—potentially leading to drastic funding cuts—President Trump risks undermining U.S. leadership abroad and placing vulnerable communities in developing nations at greater risk.

If USAID funding dries up in Cambodia, vital programs aimed at improving livelihoods, strengthening governance, and enhancing societal well-being will suffer severe setbacks. The weakening of USAID’s presence will also diminish its role as the leading U.S. agency providing development and humanitarian assistance in Cambodia, ultimately straining bilateral relations.

This counterproductive policy could erode U.S. soft power, triggering a backlash that weakens national security and diminishes America’s goodwill toward Cambodia.

If the suspension of U.S. assistance becomes permanent, American influence in Cambodia will likely decline, creating an opportunity for China to fill the void left by the uncertainty surrounding U.S. development aid. As a result, Cambodia’s options for reliable development partners will become more limited, and confidence in the U.S.’s commitment to the country’s progress will further erode.

Without a clear and substantial U.S. policy on development assistance, Cambodian public sentiment may shift toward favoring China instead.

For the U.S. to maintain its popularity over China in Cambodia, Washington must recognize that a stable and robust development assistance program through USAID is essential. This support is crucial for effectively exercising U.S. soft power, encouraging Cambodia to align with American interests on key issues, and preventing it from tilting too far toward China in ways that could undermine U.S. strategic objectives.

Him Raksmey is the Executive Director of the Cambodian Center for Regional Studies (CCRS).