PHNOM PENH — Chinese President Xi Jinping is scheduled to visit Cambodia this week during the country’s New Year celebrations, in a diplomatic move that aligns with the 50th anniversary of the Khmer Rouge’s takeover of Phnom Penh. The timing of the visit comes amid rising global uncertainty triggered by the ongoing U.S. tariff war.

Xi’s stop in Cambodia is part of a broader regional tour from April 14 to 18, which includes visits to Vietnam and Malaysia. It will be his second state visit to Cambodia, following his first in 2016.

According to Cambodia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, Xi will begin his trip with a courtesy call on King Norodom Sihamoni and Queen-Mother Norodom Monineath Sihanouk at the Royal Palace.

Later, Xi will hold bilateral talks with Senate President Hun Sen and Prime Minister Hun Manet. Discussions will focus on deepening the bilateral relationship and exchanging views on regional and international issues of mutual interest.

Xi’s April 17 Visit: Coincidence or Strategic Messaging?

The timing of Xi’s arrival—April 17, the anniversary of Phnom Penh’s fall to the Khmer Rouge in 1975—has drawn attention for its symbolic significance.

Aun Chhengpor, a policy researcher at Future Forum, noted that while the exact reason for choosing April 17 remains unclear, the Chinese government is adept at conveying layered strategic messages through its diplomatic timing.

“Nobody knows for sure except those in the small circles in the two governments who directly arrange the visit,” Chhengpor said. “However, the Chinese state has a long history of artful diplomatic communication and publicity to send strategic messages on different occasions skillfully.”

He added that the timing may be interpreted as an attempt to contrast historical events, especially since the Khmer Rouge, which seized power on April 17, 1975, was backed by Beijing following the U.S. withdrawal from Cambodia.

“This time around, one potential message could be to purport a contrasting image that he’ll come with economic gifts to support Cambodia after the Kingdom is in a perilous economic position resulting from the U.S.’ tariff decisions,” Chhengpor continued.

However, Cambodian government spokesperson Pen Bona dismissed any symbolic interpretation of the visit’s timing, calling it coincidental.

“The visit by President Xi on April 17 should not be interpreted because it is just a regular state visit and has nothing to do with the 50th anniversary of the Khmer Rouge takeover of Cambodia,” Bona said.

He emphasized the longstanding ties between Cambodia and China, which he described as rooted in centuries of interaction.

“Cambodia and China have very longstanding relation, perhaps dating thousands of years back, and now the ties have reached the highest level covering many different close partnerships,” Bona said.

Carlyle Thayer, emeritus professor of politics at the University of New South Wales, noted that April 17 remains a day of mourning for many Cambodians but argued that Cambodia–China relations have evolved beyond that dark chapter.

“Relations between China and Cambodia have moved beyond the Khmer Rouge era. China has given its political, diplomatic, and economic support to the restored Kingdom of Cambodia,” Thayer said.

Navigating a Geopolitical Tightrope

Xi’s regional tour comes as global economic tensions intensify, particularly due to a reciprocal tariff war between the U.S. and China. While U.S. President Donald Trump has paused tariffs for 90 days, a 10 percent baseline tariff remains on all countries except China, with China and the U.S. slapping each other with tit-for-tat tariffs of 125 percent and 145 percent, respectively.

For Thayer, Cambodia’s reception of Xi is unsurprising given China’s role as the country’s top trade partner and largest investor. However, he cautioned that Cambodia must avoid overdependence.

“Cambodia can only weather the tariff storm by reinforcing its commercial and economic ties with trade partners, especially China and the EU, and multilaterally through the ASEAN Free Trade Area and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership,” he explained.

Spokesperson Bona downplayed concerns over the tariff impact, insisting they were part of a broader, globally applied policy.

“The reciprocal tariff imposed by the US has been a global response to address the trade imbalance, and there is no cause for concern. Cambodia, like other nations, is affected,” Bona said.

Still, Bona acknowledged that Cambodia has responded positively to recent developments.

“There has already been a positive response, partially we could say, to our prime minister’s letter (to Trump) and (Cambodia’s) prompt decision to lower our tariff on 19 U.S. goods,” he added.

On April 4, Prime Minister Hun Manet in a letter to President Trump requested a delay in the implementation of the new U.S. tariffs and proposing negotiations. In the letter, Hun Manet also offered an immediate reduction in Cambodia’s tariffs on 19 categories of U.S. products, lowering them from 35 percent to 5 percent as a gesture of goodwill.

Ro Vannak, a geopolitical analyst and professor, interpreted Xi’s tour as part of China’s broader ambition to assert global leadership as the U.S. retreats from its traditional role.

“While the US is undermining the world order, China is demonstrating its role in accelerating global and regional growth. Perhaps this indicates that Beijing is leading the Global South strategy and countering Washington’s diminishing global influence,” he said.

In this context, Xi’s visit to Cambodia underscores its strategic relevance.

“Xi's visit showcases China’s attention to Cambodia and indicates that the strategy to contain China’s rise has gradually weakened and is on the verge of failure. Although Cambodia is small, it still holds strategic significance,” Vannak said.

Future Forum’s Chhengpor echoed this view, suggesting the visits aim to portray Beijing as a stabilizing force amid Trump’s erratic economic policies.

“The Cambodian government, as well as those in Vietnam and Malaysia, will be extremely cautious in hosting Xi in its endeavor to persuade and lobby the Trump Administration to discount the tariff rate,” Chhengpor said.

However, he warned that regional governments remain wary of appearing too close to Beijing at a time of heightened U.S.–China tensions.

“Countries, including Cambodia, will not want to be seen by Trump’s White House as siding or aligning closely with China at this strategically acute time,” he continued, noting that Cambodia is walking a tightrope between its economic dependence on China and its geopolitical need to maintain balance with the U.S.

Addressing Transshipment and Trade Integrity

Thayer pointed out that Xi’s visit comes as the U.S. scrutinizes the transshipment of Chinese goods through third countries, including Cambodia—a potential sore point in U.S.–Cambodia trade relations.

“This will require government intervention and strict measures to document the provenance of Chinese materials used in the manufacture of goods such as textiles, apparel, footwear, etc. exported from Cambodia to the United States,” Thayer said.

He advised Cambodia to consult with regional peers on best practices.

“Cambodia should give priority to consulting with Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia and how they are dealing with this problem,” he added.

“Also, Cambodia will need to enlist China’s cooperation to crack down on fraudulent practices by Chinese companies both in China and Cambodia.”

Will Transnational Crime Be on the Table?

Although China and Cambodia share strong diplomatic ties, their relationship has been tested by persistent issues, including illicit online gambling operations and scam centers linked to Chinese nationals.

These transnational crimes may also be on the agenda during Xi’s visit.

“Beijing’s central strategy is to ensure it won’t condone these criminals, whose victims on both scamming and scammed sides are also Chinese nationals, and leverage its influence on countries to crack down,” Chhengpor emphasized.

“It also does not want these crimes to tarnish its regional and international image.”

Thayer acknowledged the ongoing cooperation on such issues, asserting they can be managed without undermining broader relations.

“There is no reason the operations of so-called scam centers and human trafficking cannot be addressed without damaging bilateral relations,” Thayer said.