As Malaysia assumes the ASEAN chair in 2025 under Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, the regional grouping’s approach to the Myanmar crisis will be closely scrutinized given Anwar's reputation for an activist foreign policy and his history of championing global democratic values.

The Myanmar crisis has been a persistent challenge for ASEAN, testing the organization's ability to uphold its principles of non-interference and consensus while addressing grave human rights abuses and political instability. Since February 2021, Myanmar has been under a military junta, following a coup that ousted the democratically elected National League for Democracy led by Nobel Peace Laureate Aung San Suu Kyi.

Anwar Ibrahim has earned a longstanding reputation as a staunch advocate for human rights and democracy, both in Malaysia and on the global stage. His political journey, defined by steadfast resistance to authoritarianism under former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, relentless calls for reform, and his imprisonment as a political detainee, underscores his commitment to principled leadership. This legacy suggests he may push ASEAN towards a more resolute stance on Myanmar, advocating for the release of the ailing Aung San Suu Kyi and championing democratic values in the region.

Under his leadership of ASEAN, Malaysia might put on the table stronger measures to address the junta’s actions, including persistent efforts to engage with the National Unity Government (NUG) and other pro-democracy factions. However, this activist stance could encounter significant resistance from ASEAN members who favor the status quo or prioritize non-interference.

During a speech in Thailand as part of his first regional tour since taking office in November 2022, Anwar spoke candidly about the “atrocities” committed by Myanmar’s junta following its 2021 coup and criticized ASEAN’s response to the crisis. He emphasized, “We should carve Myanmar out for now, and I don’t think the Myanmar issue should frustrate our moves. It would be ideal if we could have just a strong consensus in giving a strong message to the Myanmar regime.”

This rhetoric underscores Anwar’s commitment to a more assertive stance, but implementing such a vision will require navigating ASEAN’s intricate dynamics.

Anwar’s ability to balance his ideals with ASEAN’s consensus-driven decision-making will be crucial. While his principles align with the growing international condemnation of Myanmar’s junta, ASEAN’s internal dynamics often favor incremental progress over bold action.

As ASEAN chair, Malaysia will have to navigate these complexities, balancing pressure for tangible outcomes with the need to maintain regional unity.

The Five-Point Consensus: Deadlock and Alternatives

The Five-Point Consensus, initially agreed upon by ASEAN and the Myanmar junta, appears to be at an impasse. The junta’s intransigence and failure to adhere to its commitments have rendered the agreement ineffective, yet it remains the only formal framework ASEAN has with the regime. This deadlock raises questions about the feasibility of negotiating a new agreement or adopting a more assertive stance.

As ASEAN chair, Malaysia could explore pathways to either reinvigorate the Five-Point Consensus or advocate for a more decisive approach. This might involve setting clear timelines for compliance, imposing consequences for non-cooperation, or sidelining the junta in favor of engaging directly with pro-democracy actors like the NUG. However, any such measures would require broad consensus among ASEAN members, many of whom remain wary of challenging the junta too directly.

The absence of alternative agreements underscores the urgency for ASEAN to reassess its strategy. Malaysia, under Anwar’s leadership, may have to spearhead efforts to build a new framework that reflects the current realities while maintaining ASEAN’s unity and credibility. Such a framework could focus on enhanced humanitarian aid delivery, stronger engagement with all stakeholders, and clearer mechanisms for accountability.

2025 Election Plans: Risks and Opportunities

The Myanmar junta has announced plans to hold elections in 2025, a move widely perceived as an attempt to legitimize its rule. For ASEAN, this development presents both a challenge and an opportunity. As ASEAN chair, Malaysia will play a crucial role in ensuring that these elections are not a fait accompli designed to consolidate the junta’s power while sidelining democratic forces.

Malaysia could advocate for a multilateral approach that pressures the junta to include all stakeholders, particularly the NUG and ethnic minority groups, in the electoral process. This might involve leveraging ASEAN’s dialogue partners, such as China, to exert influence on the junta. Additionally, Malaysia could push for the establishment of an ASEAN-led observer mission to monitor the elections and ensure transparency and fairness.

Ensuring the inclusivity of Myanmar’s elections will require a robust strategy. ASEAN could consider tying the junta’s participation in regional forums to tangible progress in creating an equitable electoral environment. Furthermore, Malaysia could work with international organizations, such as the United Nations, to provide technical assistance and oversight, ensuring that the elections reflect the will of the Myanmar people rather than the junta’s interests.

Addressing the Rohingya Crisis: A Muslim Nation's Role

As a Muslim-majority nation, Malaysia has consistently voiced concerns about the plight of the Rohingya, a persecuted Muslim minority in Myanmar. The ongoing humanitarian crisis, exacerbated by the junta’s actions and the complexities introduced by armed groups like the Arakan Army, demands focused attention. Malaysia, as ASEAN chair, could leverage its position to prioritize the Rohingya issue within the broader Myanmar crisis.

Malaysia could advocate for increased humanitarian aid to Rohingya refugees, both within Myanmar and in neighboring countries like Bangladesh. Engaging with international organizations and leveraging ASEAN’s partnerships could amplify these efforts. Additionally, Malaysia might press for greater accountability for human rights abuses against the Rohingya, seeking to involve the International Criminal Court or other mechanisms to address impunity.

Engagement with Bangladesh will be crucial in facilitating the safe and voluntary repatriation of the Rohingya to Myanmar. As the host to nearly a million Rohingya refugees, Bangladesh bears the brunt of the crisis and has consistently called for international support to resolve the issue.

Malaysia, as ASEAN chair, could work closely with Bangladesh to develop a roadmap for repatriation, ensuring that conditions in Myanmar are conducive to a safe return. This could involve coordinated diplomatic pressure on Myanmar’s junta, engaging international partners to provide guarantees for the safety and rights of returning Rohingya, and supporting Bangladesh with resources to manage the interim challenges of hosting refugees.

Collaboration with Bangladesh could strengthen regional solidarity and reinforce ASEAN’s commitment to addressing the humanitarian dimensions of the crisis.

Navigating the dynamics with the Arakan Army, which has emerged as a significant player in Myanmar’s Rakhine State, will be critical. Malaysia could support efforts to mediate between the Arakan Army and other stakeholders, promoting stability in the region as a precursor to addressing the Rohingya’s safe and voluntary repatriation. This approach would require collaboration with ASEAN members and external partners, ensuring that the Rohingya issue remains a central focus of the regional agenda.

The China Factor: Balancing Regional Dynamics

China’s influence on Myanmar adds another layer of complexity to ASEAN’s response. Beijing has maintained strong ties with Myanmar’s junta, driven by its strategic and economic interests in the region, including access to critical infrastructure projects and natural resources. This influence often undermines international efforts to isolate the junta and complicates ASEAN’s ability to present a unified front.

China has been a full dialogue partner of ASEAN since 1996, a status that underscores its significant role in regional diplomacy. This relationship provides both opportunities and challenges. As ASEAN chair, Malaysia will need to navigate these dynamics carefully. Anwar’s government could aim to engage China in a constructive dialogue, emphasizing the importance of stability in Myanmar for regional security and economic development.

This approach might include leveraging China’s influence to press the junta for concessions or compliance with international norms. However, this strategy carries risks, as overt alignment with Beijing’s preferences could alienate other ASEAN members or diminish Malaysia’s perceived neutrality.

Balancing these interests will require a nuanced approach. Malaysia must ensure that its engagement with China complements ASEAN’s broader objectives, reinforcing the organization’s credibility and unity. By framing the Myanmar crisis as a regional issue with implications for all stakeholders, Malaysia could encourage China to act as a stabilizing force rather than a complicating factor.

The Role of Thaksin Shinawatra

Thaksin Shinawatra’s involvement as an advisor to Anwar on ASEAN matters adds an intriguing dimension to Malaysia’s leadership. Thaksin, a former Thai prime minister with deep regional experience, could provide valuable insights into ASEAN’s intricate political dynamics. However, his close ties to Myanmar’s junta and his controversial political legacy in Thailand could raise questions about his influence on Malaysia’s approach.

Thaksin’s role might complicate Malaysia’s position, particularly if his connections to the junta are perceived as undermining Anwar’s reformist stance. Critics could argue that Thaksin’s involvement sends mixed signals, potentially weakening Malaysia’s credibility in advocating for democratic values in Myanmar. To mitigate this risk, Anwar will need to delineate clear boundaries for Thaksin’s advisory role and ensure that Malaysia’s policy remains consistent with its stated principles.

Balancing Activism and Pragmatism

Malaysia’s chairmanship of ASEAN in 2025 will demand a careful balancing act. While Anwar’s activist foreign policy and commitment to democracy may inspire a more assertive approach to Myanmar, the realities of ASEAN’s decision-making process and the diverse interests of its members will constrain unilateral action. Anwar will need to leverage Malaysia’s diplomatic capital to build consensus for meaningful action, such as enhancing humanitarian aid delivery, supporting regional dialogue, and pressuring the junta to implement ASEAN’s Five-Point Consensus or an alternative framework.

Pragmatism will also play a key role. As chair, Malaysia must ensure that its approach to Myanmar does not alienate other ASEAN members or jeopardize the organization’s cohesion. Anwar’s leadership will be tested in finding common ground among members with divergent views, particularly those more sympathetic to Myanmar’s military regime.

Prospects and Challenges

Malaysia’s chairmanship presents an opportunity to recalibrate ASEAN’s response to the Myanmar crisis. Anwar’s leadership, if effectively managed, could inject a renewed sense of purpose into ASEAN’s efforts. However, the potential pitfalls are significant. Balancing activism with pragmatism, managing Thaksin’s influence, and navigating ASEAN’s consensus-driven approach will all pose formidable challenges.

Myanmar is ASEAN’s elephant in the room. Ultimately, Malaysia’s success as ASEAN chair in addressing the Myanmar crisis will hinge on its ability to reconcile Anwar’s reformist ideals with the practicalities of regional diplomacy. If Malaysia can strike this balance, it may not only enhance its own standing but also reinvigorate ASEAN’s credibility as a regional organization capable of addressing pressing challenges.