August 2024 will be forever etched into modern Thai political history as a month of political upheaval. The drama began on August 7 when the Constitutional Court, in a stunning blow, dissolved the Move Forward Party, the leading opposition force. Their charismatic leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, was exiled from politics for a decade for merely advocating for the reform of the outdated and deeply controversial lese majeste law.
But the political turmoil was far from over. Just a week later, on August 14, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin from the Pheu Thai party found himself unceremoniously ousted from power by the same court. Pheu Thai emerged as the second-largest party in the 2023 general election and eventually formed a coalition government with several other parties, including some with military connections.
Srettha’s downfall was swift and brutal, triggered by the appointment of Pichit Chuenban as a minister. Pichit, it seems, carried the baggage of past transgressions, having once been charged with attempting to bribe a court official.
These events sent shockwaves through the nation, leaving many to question the future of Thai democracy. The dissolution of the Move Forward Party and the removal of Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin marked a significant setback for those seeking political change and raised serious concerns about the erosion of democratic principles in the country.
These two incidents threw Thailand into another round of political uncertainties and turmoil.
Supporters of the now disbanded Move Forward Party were shocked and upset that their hugely popular leader, Pita, who after the May 2023 general election was the front-runner to become prime minister, not only failed to take the top job, but failed to form the government despite having the most number of votes (14 million) and MPs. A combination of constitutional barriers, lack of the military-dominated Senate’s support, resistance from conservative forces, and legal challenges made it impossible for the Move Forward Party to form a government, despite its electoral success.
To add insult to injury, the party was banned from competing in the next election or holding political office for the next 10 years. However, within two days of this announcement, the remaining party MPs regrouped and formed a new party called the "People's Party."
Remarkably, in its first week alone, they raised over 20 million baht ($583,000) in public donations.
Nevertheless, the party and its supporters have no illusion that they are perceived as an enemy of the royalist elites for simply wanting to amend the royal defamation law that for decades prevented Thais from having the freedom and rights to criticize the monarchy institution. They know that extra-constitutional forces are against them and that includes the Thai armed forces, long regarded as a rogue army since the Cold War era when the United States was more than kosher with supporting one Thai military dictator after another.
Some have lost faith in the Thai political system and have become increasingly alienated. With little hope for change, some young Thais talk about leaving the country for good.
The political landscape was in a state of flux, but the Pheu Thai Party, ever resilient, wasted no time in maneuvering for power. With Srettha ousted on August 14, they swiftly put forward their own candidate to fill the void. And so, on August 18, the stage was set for a new chapter in Thai history. Paetongtarn Shinawatra, daughter of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, ascended to the position of prime minister. At just 37 years old, she became the youngest leader to ever helm the nation.
Her appointment was met with a mix of excitement and trepidation. Some hailed her as a symbol of hope, a fresh face untainted by the political scandals of the past. Others expressed concerns, wary of the potential influence of her father, a controversial figure whose return to power had been a source of division.
It is understandable that supporters of Move Forward Party, or the current People’s Party, felt that they had been robbed of their votes through a combination of being out maneuvered by the Pheu Thai Party back in mid-2023 (and again in August 2024) and unfairly punished by the conservative Constitutional Court.
On August 20, Pita announced on social media he is leaving Thailand for a fellowship at Harvard University, thus making his supporters feel that there is little or no hope for a truly democratic Thailand.
This is partly true. Nevertheless, pro-democracy Thais should remind themselves that the current semi-democratic system is still better than a much more dictatorial system that lasted nine years following the May 2014 military coup, which was staged by the then Army Chief Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha.
Thailand is currently undergoing a prolonged transition toward a fully democratic society. The current situation is fragile, but it's important to give the process time to evolve and become more stable. While some Thais may not support the Pheu Thai government or Prime Minister Paetongtarn, a military intervention would be a far worse alternative. This is a crucial point for supporters of the People's Party to consider.
It is true that the Pheu Thai Party has struck a fragile truce with pro-military parties after the May 2023 general election. The latter found it necessary in order to keep the more progressive Move Forward Party at bay while the Pheu Thai Party, having unexpectedly lost to MFP, needed pro-junta parties in order to form a government which was then led by Srettha as PM.
But for how long this fragile truce will last, we do not know.
From a broader perspective, Thailand's ongoing political developments can be seen as a prolonged educational process for the Thai public. Over the past two decades, many people have become increasingly aware of the country's democratic shortcomings. While Thailand is often described as a democracy, it's more accurately classified as a semi-democratic state. One significant limitation on citizens' freedom of speech is the sensitive nature of discussions about the monarchy, a highly revered institution among royalists in Thai society.
Furthermore, Thailand's political landscape is at the mercy of rogue army generals who often intervene in politics under the pretext of combating corruption or threats to the monarchy. Pro-democracy Thais must be prepared for a long and arduous struggle, especially if they seek peaceful change rather than violent revolution.
It's unlikely that either side of the political divide will completely dominate the other in the foreseeable future. Therefore, now is the time for continued deliberation and reflection on the true state of Thai democracy.
The conservative elites, or "deep state," are resorting to extreme measures to prevent progressive parties like Move Forward from gaining power, even going so far as to disband them.These actions further expose the deep flaws in the Thai political system, demonstrating how easily the will of the people can be disregarded when those in power feel threatened. This has alerted both Thais and the international community to the urgent need for political reform.
Now is not the time for pro-democracy Thais to lose hope or give up. The recurring political interference by undemocratic forces is evidence of the growing strength of the pro-democracy movement.
Pravit Rojanaphruk is a senior staff writer at the Bangkok-based Khaosod English digital portal. He attended the University of Oxford as a Reuters Fellow and a Chevening scholar. In 2017, the Committee to Protect Journalists awarded him the International Press Freedom Award.
