The U.S. government's suspension of foreign aid and dismantling of a key agency for poverty reduction, democracy, and human rights has sent global shockwaves. Aid-dependent nations like Cambodia are feeling the impact, with critics calling the move irresponsible and damaging to U.S. soft power. Experts urge these countries to strengthen resilience through reforms and global partnerships rather than relying on major powers.

Carlyle Thayer, an Emeritus Professor of Politics at the University of New South Wales, criticized the U.S. government's suspension of foreign aid for 90 days as utterly irresponsible, outrageous, and counterproductive.

“The suspension of USAID was abrupt, poorly executed, and confusing," Thayer noted, adding that details were unclear as Secretary of State Mario Rubio had to issue waivers for some programs.

Thayer also highlighted that this decision puts Cambodia, a key recipient of U.S. health aid, at serious risk by potentially disrupting essential public health initiatives.

For instance, he mentioned that the Cambodian Mine Action Center has halted operations in eight provinces due to inadequate funding from service partners. Rural communities in these provinces will remain at risk until funding is restored.

Cambodia has twenty-five provinces, fifteen of which have been declared mine-free. Except for Ratanakiri (northeast) and Kampong Thom (centre), Thayer explained that the remaining 10 provinces are located along Cambodia’s borders in the north and west. 

He stressed while the Khmer Rouge bears responsibility for significant mining in these provinces, this does not relieve the U.S. of its moral obligation to assist in demining explosive remnants of war (ERW).

Cambodia is one of the beneficiaries of the aid program funded through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), which has provided $3 billion over the past three decades.

In October of last year, Samantha Power, the then USAID administrator, promised $12 million in new funding to support demining and $5 million to enhance health security.

Geopolitical analyst and political professor Ro Vannak agreed that the Trump administration’s abrupt suspension of foreign aid has negatively affected Cambodia both directly and indirectly.

"This only worsens an already difficult situation," Vannak said, emphasizing that it harms local livelihoods, increases pressure on the government, deepens individual debt, and disrupts the economy.

This photo taken on June 19, 2023 shows an overflow dam under a demonstration project funded by the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation (LMC) Special Fund in Thma Bang district of Koh Kong province, Cambodia. Photo by Van Pov/Xinhua

Allowing China to Fill the Void

Thayer stated that Trump’s actions are counterproductive, fundamentally undermining U.S. national security and potentially turning the U.S. into a region’s least trusted partner.

“Aid-recipient states will no longer trust any of the commitments offered by the Trump Administration,” he said. 

Aside from Cambodia, Thayer said the absence of the United States as a provider of development assistance will undermine the U.S.-ASEAN partnership and allow China to fill the void.

Vannak acknowledged that the absence of U.S. financial support, coupled with Cambodia's dependence on China, may compel Cambodia to seek assistance from other nations, including China, as long as they are willing to provide the necessary funds.

“It perhaps pushes the country to rely on China further if China can offer what Cambodia needs,” Vannak stressed.

Trump’s policy prioritizes American interests and has never emphasized American liberal hegemony to pursue an active role in maintaining a liberal order amid rising Chinese influence, Vannak noted.

“This is worrisome and undermines America's role as a model and its reputation for liberalism and democracy,” he said. 

This decision risks further damaging Cambodia's already troubled democratic process, which has suffered significant setbacks.  The reduced U.S. presence weakens American influence overall.

“I think the Cambodian government does not care about this. However, the general public, who believe in democracy and liberal principles and hope for democratic modernization, can be negatively affected,” Vannak added.

Lim Chhay, visiting fellow at CSEAS, IISPP, Royal University of Phnom Penh, observed that Trump’s foreign policy has been straightforward, cutting foreign aid as a bargaining chip to force foreign countries to agree to his terms. 

“But this transactional approach overlooks the bigger picture,” Chhay said, explaining that the Trump administration fails to recognize the long-term, less tangible power inherent in foreign aid. 

“If the U.S. wants to maintain influence, it can’t just treat aid as a short-term deal—it has to think about credibility and long-term relationships,” he stressed. 

Chhay concurred that cutting support for health and demining efforts in Cambodia harms the country and ironically weakens the United States’ position in the region.

“Trump isn’t focused on America’s traditional leadership role, but isolationism isn’t a winning strategy in the long run, either,” he said.

Trump’s Policy Remains Contentious as Past Administrations

Though pundits warn that Trump’s foreign policy could bring the U.S. soft power to its knees, Chou Vithoureakborndidh, an independent researcher in international relations, views Trump’s decision differently. 

He noted that the erosion of American soft power extends well beyond his presidency. 

“It reflects a broader pattern of contentious. foreign policy decisions made by various. U.S. administrations,” Vithoureakborndidh pointed out. 

He suggested that throughout U.S. history, America has often interpreted its national interests in notably narrow terms, sometimes taking actions that seem to contradict the very international rules and institutions it helped establish.

 Any states with extensive experience in U.S. diplomatic relations have come to understand and adapt to this complex reality, Vithoureakborndidh continued.

“They acknowledge that each administration has its own unique agenda that may not always align with global consensus.,” he explained. 

Trump Vindicates the U.S. as an Unreliable Partner

For Thayer, any gap left by the U.S. and other democratic countries would allow China to take advantage of this situation.

“Remember when the European Commission suspended its Anything But Arms no-tariffs policy on Cambodia, China stepped in to support the garment industry,” Thayer explained, adding, “China has long depicted the United States as unreliable. The Trump administration’s actions will confirm China’s perspective.”

However, he also noted that China also faces constraints due to its sluggish economic growth.
“This has led Beijing to pull back from large and expensive infrastructure projects,” he said. 

Chhay expressed reservations about China replacing the U.S. in providing aid and assistance to Cambodia, stating, “China will only do so where it makes strategic sense. In Cambodia, that means areas where China sees clear economic or geopolitical advantages.”

He also emphasized that even with this shift, he wouldn't have complete confidence in the Cambodian situation.  Furthermore, he warned that Cambodia's primary challenge is navigating aid in a way that avoids creating new vulnerabilities, in addition to the pressure of choosing sides.

Many Cambodian elites dislike aid that comes with too many conditions and that having zero conditions isn’t ideal either—it can lead to weak governance, corruption, and projects that don’t serve the public, according to Chhay. 

“So the challenge isn’t just about whether China replaces the U.S. but how Cambodia manages these different sources of aid. It is about balancing—taking advantage of what other partners offer while ensuring it benefits the country,” he highlighted. 

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a joint press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House in Washington D.C., the United States, Feb. 4, 2025. Photo by Xinhua/Hu Yousong

Can other Western Nations Step In to Fill the Gap?

The U.S. withdrawal has created global uncertainty and, if not addressed effectively, could significantly hinder Cambodia's long-term development, including its aspiration to graduate from least developed country status.  Experts suggest that Western governments could step in to support developing nations even without U.S. leadership.

Regarding the U.S. decision to freeze aid, Marc Thayre, Deputy Head of Mission at the British Embassy in Cambodia, stated that the U.K. is awaiting the results of the U.S. aid review.

Thayre affirmed the U.K.'s commitment to achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals and its continued support for partners like Cambodia.

“We will continue to work with all our international partnerships toward that vision. Humanitarian aid and international development remain critical to the U.K.’s international agenda,” he said in an email response.

Regarding Western nations filling the void left by the Trump administration, Carlyle Thayer suggested that these countries, while supporting the U.S. in containing China's influence, could revise and restructure their development aid programs to offer alternatives to nations caught between the two powers.

However, he pointed out that Western states face limitations due to the global scope of USAID programs, necessitating a triage approach.

“Also, much depends on whether a full-blown trade war erupts between the U.S. and China and whether Trump slaps tariffs on Europe,” he noted.

Vannak, however, cautioned that Cambodia cannot simply rely on other Western nations, particularly European countries, to fill the gap, as these partners may have learned from U.S. policy and shifted their focus to internal strengthening.

“Europe can also recognize the significant impact the U.S. can have on both their region and the global stage. They might consider adopting a similar approach by focusing on strengthening themselves and their European alliance,” Vannak said.

He added that they would prioritize domestic issues and, consequently, decrease their support for countries like Cambodia.

Meanwhile, Chhay suggested that Cambodia needs to be more proactive in strengthening its own position and encouraging partners to step up.

“This means Cambodia shouldn’t just sit back and wait for partners to come knocking, it needs to actively make the case for why others should engage,” Chhay said.

He further explained that the country also needs to proactively demonstrate its value to other nations as it seeks to diversify its partnerships in this challenging global landscape.

“One possible way could be identifying its comparative advantages and using them as leverage to attract meaningful engagement. It’s easy to say that ‘diversification is important,’ but making it a reality? That’s the challenging part,” Chhay said.

For Vithoureakborndidh, like it or not, smaller countries like Cambodia must navigate their relationships with the U.S. pragmatically, regardless of who is in charge.

“Despite potential policy differences or changing administrations, Cambodia's engagement with the U.S. remains a strategic necessity given America's global influence and power,” Vithoureakborndidh said. 

While Cambodia’s foreign policy has been criticized as shortsighted and Sinocentric, the researcher viewed it as a pragmatic approach driven by development needs and strategic interests. 

“While China has proven exceptionally responsive to Cambodia's development needs, some observers and scholars often misunderstand this strategic partnership,” he said.  “Usually, the very lens of great power rivalry dominates the current discourse, and small state agencies are sadly ignored.”

Weathering a Fierce Geopolitical Storm

With Trump at the helm of the U.S. presidency for four years, other nations can anticipate intensified geopolitical competition, as he clearly aims to prevent China from achieving regional hegemony and becoming a peer competitor, both regionally and globally.

“So far, the U.S. has been focusing on the domestic economy, technology, and innovation while aiming to reduce expenses, seeking to leverage its economic power to target China. It employs geoeconomic force to achieve its geopolitical goals,” Vannak said.

“As a result, the competition among great powers will become increasingly fierce and perilous as both China and the U.S. prioritize their national interests over the global order.”

Cambodia must do more to weather the storms and navigate the challenging times presented by this risky situation.  Its strategy in recent years has been to diversify its diplomatic partners to strengthen global relations, reduce dependence on specific countries, and cultivate economic partnerships.

However, Vannak argued that, given the increasingly volatile and dangerous competition among major powers, strategies must go beyond economic and diplomatic diversification. He suggested that instead of heavily relying on any single partner, whether Western powers or China, Cambodia should prioritize domestic political reforms to build resilience.

“So, for now, can we Cambodians think collectively and work in unity to empower ourselves, enabling U.S. to navigate the bleak conditions created by geopolitical competition?” Vannak asked

Vannak pointed out that for small nations like Cambodia, navigating the turbulent waters of great power competition requires more than just diversification.  Flexibility and resilience depend on swift modernization and reform of domestic political institutions, along with the establishment of inclusive economic systems.

“While diversifying diplomatic and economic partners is essential, I still believe that political reform and modernization are crucial tasks for Cambodia amid this global uncertainty,” he explained.

“These changes empower young people to shape their country's future. Establishing a stable political and economic foundation helps avoid geopolitical traps.”

Beyond political institutional reforms, Vithoureakborndidh stressed that Cambodia must pursue domestic reforms to bolster its resilience and autonomy, alongside strategic international engagement.

These domestic reforms should include a shift away from traditional reliance on agriculture and garment manufacturing toward a more diversified, service-oriented economy driven by small and medium-sized enterprises.

“This economic transformation, coupled with modernizing public services to be more responsive to citizens' needs, would create a more robust foundation for dealing with growing uncertainties posed by changes in international order,” Vithoureakborndidh said.

On the foreign policy front, he suggested that Cambodia cultivate stronger ties with regional middle powers like South Korea, Australia, and Indonesia, while actively participating in regional institutions.

“This balanced approach to foreign relations would give Cambodia a buffer to exercise greater diplomatic maneuverability and enhanced bargaining power when interacting with major powers,” he emphasized.